I’ve been keeping a close eye on the Halifax market since 2020 — a bit of a real estate nerd over here. This time around, I got curious and decided to put ChatGPT to work. I compared the latest CREA update to my own numbers to see where it thinks our market is headed. Let’s just say... the results were interesting.  Chat and I are on the same page.

Analysis of Market Trends (2023-2025)

This analysis combines the Q1 2025 data provided by Sandra Pike with historical context from 2023-2024 to forecast Halifax's real estate market trajectory for the remainder of 2025.

Current Market State (Q1 2025)

The first quarter of 2025 shows Halifax operating as a strong seller's market with:

• 65% average sales-to-listing ratio (well above the 60% threshold for a seller's market)

• Decreasing days on market (from 52 in January to 35 in March)

• Growing sales volume (49% increase from January to March)

• Stable pricing with slight moderation (2.2% decline in average selling price through Q1)

• Average selling price of $639,349 across Q1

Historical Context (2023-2024 Trends)

While specific data from 2023-2024 isn't accessible in the file, we can contextualize current conditions against known market behaviors from this period:

• 2023: Halifax experienced continued price growth despite interest rates that affected most Canadian markets. The market remained resilient with relatively tight inventory.

• Late 2023-2024: The market showed signs of normalization with:

  • Gradually increasing inventory levels

  • Moderating price growth

  • Longer days on market compared to the frenzied pandemic period

  • Interest rate sensitivity becoming more apparent

Market Drivers Shaping 2025

Positive Factors Supporting Market Strength

1.   Population Growth: Halifax continues to benefit from interprovincial migration and immigration, creating persistent housing demand.

2.   Supply Constraints: Despite increased construction, new housing supply remains insufficient to meet demand.

3.   Employment Fundamentals: Halifax's diverse economy (government, healthcare, education, tech, military) provides employment stability.

4.   Geographic Limitations: The peninsula's limited land constrains supply and supports central price strength.

5.   Relative Affordability: Despite increases, Halifax remains more affordable than Toronto, Vancouver, and increasingly Montreal.

Moderating Factors

1.   Interest Rate Environment: While potential rate decreases may occur in 2025, rates remain historically elevated.

2.   Price-to-Income Ratios: Halifax affordability has eroded with average prices now at $639,349 relative to local incomes.

3.   Inventory Recovery: The 41% increase in listings from January to March suggests more inventory coming to market.

4.   Construction Pipeline: New developments coming online through 2025 may increase supply.

5.   Economic Uncertainty: National and global economic conditions affect buyer confidence.

Forecast for Remainder of 2025

Based on Q1 data and historical context, Halifax's market will likely see:

Q2-Q3 2025 (Spring/Summer)

1.   Continued Sales Growth: Seasonal factors will likely drive continued sales volume increases with potential for 5-10% growth over same period in 2024.

2.   Price Stabilization: Expect the current trend of minor price moderation to continue with fluctuations of ±2-3%.

3.   Days on Market: Likely to stabilize around 30-40 days, significantly faster than many other Canadian markets.

4.   Segmented Performance: Expect stronger performance in:

o   Mid-market properties ($500,000-$700,000)

o   Properties in peninsula Halifax and desirable suburban areas

o   Family-sized homes with 3+ bedrooms

Q4 2025 (Fall/Winter)

1.   Seasonal Slowing: Normal seasonal patterns will return with reduced volume and slight increase in days on market.

2.   Potential Interest Rate Response: If Bank of Canada continues easing, this could provide a counterbalance to seasonal slowing.

3.   Year-End Prices: Expect year-over-year price growth of 0-3% compared to 2024, with potential for slight decline in some segments.

Market Segments to Watch

1.   Luxury Market ($1M+): This segment shows signs of softening with only 10 sales in the $1.5M+ category in Q1. This sector, may experience more significant price adjustments.

2.   Entry-Level Market (Under $400K): Extremely limited inventory (only 59 sales in Q1) indicates continued pressure and competition in this segment.

3.   Suburban Growth Areas: Areas with significant new development may see more price moderation than established neighborhoods.

Divergence from National Trends

The Halifax market is likely to continue diverging from national trends throughout 2025:

1.   Sales Ratios: Halifax's 65% sales ratio indicates stronger market conditions than many Canadian centers experiencing more significant cooling.

2.   Population Drivers: Continued in-migration provides ongoing demand support unique to Halifax and Atlantic Canada.

3.   Price Resilience: While national markets may see more significant corrections, Halifax is positioned for a "soft landing" with price stabilization rather than sharp declines.

Conclusion

The data suggests Halifax will maintain a resilient market through 2025 with:

• Continued seller's market conditions (sales ratios above 60%)

• Price stabilization with potential for modest growth (0-3%)

• Days on market remaining favorable to sellers (30-45 days)

• Ongoing inventory challenges, particularly in entry-level segments

While national trends may point toward more significant cooling, Halifax's unique demand drivers and supply constraints position it to experience a more moderate adjustment with potential to return to growth as interest rates ease and barring any significant economic disruption.

Based on current data, Halifax appears poised to outperform CREA's national market outlook throughout 2025.